Monthly Archives: October 2012

“Policy Certainty” Sets Stage for Potential Romney Rally

Don’t get me wrong.  Some of my best friends are economists.  But their response to any and all problems is, “first, let’s create a time series, which we’ll regress against other time series until we find a relationship worth writing … Continue reading

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Q3 Earnings: Even Worse than Expected

On October 9 we issued a Complacency Alert, warning that, contra The Wall Street Journal, weak earnings did indeed matter to stock prices despite QE3 liquidity injections by the Fed.  The contours of third quarter earnings are about as expected, … Continue reading

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Off the Dividend Cliff?

Focus on the recession risk posed by the “Fiscal Cliff” has diverted attention from a the Dividend Cliff written into current law.  Prior to 2003 dividends were taxed as ordinary income at a taxpayer’s marginal income tax rate—far above the … Continue reading

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What to Expect in Q3 Profits

Uh oh.  COMPLACENCY ALERT   COMPLACENCY ALERT  The Wall Street Journal just ran an article saying Q3 earnings will be poor but it doesn’t matter because the Fed is pumping in liquidity.  Unfortunately weak earnings most definitely do matter because Fed … Continue reading

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The Pulse of Prosperity: 1964

America was at the high tide of prosperity by the mid-1960s.  The gold year was 1964—three years into the expansion but before Vietnam and rising inflation cast a pall.  Scanning the pages of Time Magazine, one finds signs of confidence … Continue reading

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The Good Old Days of White Male Corporate Bureaucracies

Bottom Line:   Liberals love the 1950s and 1960s when income inequality was far lower than it is today.  But the economy of that era was dominated by large, complacent, bureaucratic corporations, employing few women, immigrants or blacks. Dynamic entrepreneurial activity … Continue reading

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