Monthly Archives: December 2012

Stock Avoidance Syndrome: Positive for Disciplined Individual Investors

100% in Equities? In February 2012 one of the very few Wall Street executives whose stature actually increased during the financial crisis, Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, told Bloomberg why he liked stocks: “I have been pretty consistent on this since … Continue reading

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Chronic Crony Capitalist – Time for a Break-Up

Every January an elite group of investment pros meets at the Barron’s Roundtable to divulge their best stock ideas for the year ahead.  In January 2007 one of America’s top fund managers – -a man widely respected for his careful … Continue reading

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Gross Domestic Puzzle . . . or . . . the Meaning of Maria’s Mobile

GDP is supposedly the value of the goods and services an economy “produces,” but there is a big conceptual caveat: GDP only covers goods and services that are bought and sold.  If I help my daughter with her algebra, it … Continue reading

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Where We Get Our Money – Personal Income, 2007 vs. 2012

The personal income data in the GDP accounts provides good insights into structural changes in the U.S. economy.  We compare the most recent figures (four quarters ending Q3 2012) with 2007. These are nominal data, i.e., not adjusted for inflation.  … Continue reading

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Follow-up: Regulators Gone Wild – the “Cumulative Effect”

Our July 9 screed on the “other Keynesian paradigm” argued that over-regulation was killing what Keynes called “animal spirits” in the private economy.  We quoted Jamie Dimon’s peroration to Ben Bernanke where Jamie ticked off a gigantic (but still incomplete) … Continue reading

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Over the Cliff We Go

I would hold off buying stocks here.  Earnings momentum is poor, much of the world is in or near recession, stocks are not particularly cheap at 13.4x 2013E EPS of $106, and the probability we go over the fiscal cliff … Continue reading

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