Tag Archives: stock market

The China Syndrome (Part II) . . . . and the Crumbling BRICs

Two years ago I wrote a bearish post on China titled “The China Syndrome: Will GDP Growth Top 5%?”.  I argued a “soft landing” was unlikely because: A) It would inevitably be tough to shift from export-and-investment driven growth to … Continue reading

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U.S. Stocks: Look for Stronger Performance in Second Half of 2015

At the end of 2014 we explained why “stocks are expensive, offer mediocre risk / reward.” The weak 2.5% price rise so far this year is consistent with that call. But stocks should be stronger in the second half because … Continue reading

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Fidelity versus the S&P 500: Round Two

A couple of days ago the WSJ reported big news in the mutual fund world—active managers have outperformed index funds thus far in 2015. Which prompted me to update a little study I did three years ago that compared the … Continue reading

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S&P Is Not GDP: Why Profits Fall While GDP Is Growing

The media, and many of the econo-pundits they interview, are befuddled by the current profit picture. Why, they wonder, will Q1 profits decline materially while the economy continues to grow? They get that energy earnings have collapsed, but isn’t there … Continue reading

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B&T, Watch Wendy Do the “Impossible”

Yesterday on Bloomberg two respected Street professionals—blogger Barry Ritholtz and strategist Tony Dwyer of Canaccord Genuity—were discussing the topic of long-term investing in equities, Buffett style. They basically concluded it was impossible for the average individual investor to be a … Continue reading

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Equity Market Outlook: Still Mediocre but Not Terrible

January’s 3% decline in the S&P 500 is consistent with my observation on December 30 that “Stocks Are Expensive, Offer Mediocre Risk / Reward.” The main issues are: Investors and strategists have become bullish and complacent; they were far more … Continue reading

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Stocks Are Expensive, Offer Mediocre Risk / Reward

Using $124 S&P 500 EPS for 2015, the forward PE of the market is 16.8x, which seems reasonable compared to the 17.1x average PE since 1989. Unfortunately this comparison is misleading for two reasons:  The average since 1989 is inflated … Continue reading

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Deflation Fears will Weigh on Stocks for the Next Few Weeks, Creating Opportunities

Why are stocks selling off when economists tell us declining oil prices are wonderful? Answer: full valuations, investor complacency, financial blow-ups from plunging oil prices, and fears of global deflation. Investor Complacency A couple of years ago you could still … Continue reading

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Gross-Out: End of an Era

The news flash crossed the wires at 8.29 AM. CNBC’s Becky Quick was astounded. Bloomberg’s Tom Keene was stunned. They had to double-check that the William H. Gross joining Janus Funds was indeed THE William H. Gross, bond king, whom … Continue reading

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Wall Street Strategists Are Disturbingly Bullish

Barron’s is out with its always interesting “back to school” early September survey of Wall Street strategists, hailing from both the buy side and sell side. Though the samples size of nine is a bit small (where are Deutsche, U … Continue reading

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