Tag Archives: stock market

3-5% Inflation Will End this Rally . . . Eventually

Our bullish note of May 28 explained why stocks would manage to scale a new “Wall of Worry.” Since then stocks have climbed 2.4%; I think they are headed higher still. “Central bankers gone wild” are pumping liquidity into the … Continue reading

Share
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Stocks Can Scale a New Wall of Worry

Last year, despite slowing profit growth, U.S. equities experienced a “valuation levitation” because they were too cheap compared to bonds and cash. Why own a bond yielding 3-5% when you could own a stock with a 3% dividend yield, 8% … Continue reading

Share
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Do the Dow Industrials Grow Much More Slowly than Smaller Competitors? We Examine 20 Industries

For a growth stock investor like myself, a major challenge is buying companies that really will grow as fast as Wall Street expects—and sell names that run out of gas before it’s obvious to the market.  A major risk is … Continue reading

Share
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

A Whiff of Complacency

Exactly a year ago we wrote a prescient post titled “Muted Expectations Could Set the Stage for a Positive Stock Market Surprise.”  Analyzing Barrons’ survey of 12 equity strategists, published in early September 2012, we suggested (incorrectly) that their forecasts … Continue reading

Share
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Defending Profitability: This Is Not Your Parents’ S&P 500

A few weeks ago I had lunch with the strategist for a major buy-side firm who has been correctly positive on stocks.  He said the biggest push-back he got on his bullish call was that profits would be weak.  It’s … Continue reading

Share
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Q2 Earnings: Good Enough

The second quarter S&P 500 bottom-up EPS estimate is around $27.00 and should creep higher during the rest of earnings season.  This is consistent with strategists’ full-year 2013 estimates of $108-110.  Results are not great but good enough for stocks … Continue reading

Share
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Regime Change: What the Bond / Gold Rout Means for Stocks

For well over a year I have been bullish on stocks, arguing it made little sense to own a bond yielding 2% instead of well-managed blue chip stocks yielding 2-5% with dividend growth of 5-12%. If all went well, I … Continue reading

Share
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Create Your Own Conglomerate

Short-take:  Index funds are inexpensive but they are riskier than they appear, and individuals tend to dump them during panics because they don’t know what they own.  Superior after-tax returns are achieved by working with an investment advisor to create … Continue reading

Share
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Liquidity Over Corporate Results? Climbing the FT’s Wall of Worry

The folks at the Financial Times are trying to make sense of the U.S. stock market rally, which, it is fair to say, has surprised them.  Here is their take and my brief response: The state of the world economy … Continue reading

Share
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The PETRR Principal: How to Compare Growth Stocks and Yield Stocks

Today’s Wall Street Journal points out that despite weak EPS growth Procter & Gamble commands a higher PE ratio than Google because it has a juicy dividend.  Investors reaching for yield are piling into high dividend stocks without paying much … Continue reading

Share
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment