{"id":242,"date":"2012-11-19T15:50:27","date_gmt":"2012-11-19T15:50:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.wallstreetandkstreet.com\/?p=242"},"modified":"2012-11-19T16:33:36","modified_gmt":"2012-11-19T16:33:36","slug":"why-you-need-an-investment-advisor-part-i-individuals-vastly-underperform-the-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wallstreetandkstreet.com\/?p=242","title":{"rendered":"Why You Need an Investment Advisor Part I \u2013 Individuals Vastly Underperform the Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since 1929 U.S. stocks have provided a real return of 5.9% per year.\u00a0 So if you sell a business and have a long time horizon, it makes sense to invest in stocks.\u00a0 The cheapest and easiest way is to buy an index mutual fund or ETF.\u00a0 But that is <strong>not<\/strong> the smartest thing to do.\u00a0 It is better to find an experienced, trustworthy investment advisor to help manage your money.<\/p>\n<p>Why?\u00a0 <strong>Not<\/strong> because they will be such great stock pickers that they beat the stock market by a substantial margin.\u00a0 I know a couple of talented professionals who can do that, but it is very difficult because the market is so efficient.\u00a0 AIG\u2019s Hank Greenberg once remarked, \u201cAll I want in life is an unfair advantage.\u201d\u00a0 Me too, but it is hard to find in the stock market, what with every trader, analyst, and broker having available on his desktop, via Bloomberg or FactSet, the income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, trading history, SEC filings, ownership data, conference call transcripts, relative valuation metrics, technical charts, event timelines etc. on thousands of companies.<\/p>\n<p>And keep in mind that advisors who <strong>do<\/strong> have a lengthy record of beating the market may have done so by taking too much risk.\u00a0 An example is Legg Mason\u2019s Bill Miller, a talented fellow who beat the S&amp;P 500 for ten years in a row.\u00a0 He made concentrated, contrarian bets on unloved sectors \u2013 which after 2006 included housing stocks and financial stocks. Woops.\u00a0 The fund dropped 55% in 2008; assets declined about 87% between 2007 and 2011 (partly due to withdrawals).<\/p>\n<p>So why use an advisor if they are not too likely to beat the market significantly?\u00a0 Because individuals, left to their own devices, <strong>tend to vastly underperform<\/strong> the stock market.\u00a0 Consider:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Dalbar, a market research firm, \u201cutilizes the net of aggregate mutual fund sales, redemptions and exchanges each month as a measure of investor behavior&#8230;. Based on this behavior, it calculates an average investor return.\u201d\u00a0 Over the two decades ending 2008, the average investor return was <strong>+1.87%<\/strong> versus <strong>+8.35%<\/strong> for the S&amp;P 500.<\/li>\n<li>Former <strong>New York Times<\/strong> reporter Hedrick Smith\u2019s book <strong>Who Stole the American Dream?<\/strong> (his answer: conservatives, even though the dream disappeared in the 1970s when liberal policies reigned) has an interesting chapter indicting 401(k) plans because typical investors vastly underperform the market. The State of Nebraska offered a 401(k) type pension plan to employees, but the legislature wondered whether it worked properly.\u00a0 So they ran an experiment.\u00a0 Employees were split into two groups; a group of workers who ran their own money and another pool of funds run by professionals. The professionals soundly beat the amateurs, 10.5% per year vs. 6.5%.<\/li>\n<li>The reason for individuals\u2019 poor performance is that they get in and out of stocks at the wrong time and chase performance by buying \u201chot\u201d funds after they have become expensive.\u00a0 A National Bureau of Economic Research study of mutual fund s found that \u201cFund flows are dumb money.\u00a0 By reallocating across different mutual funds, retail investors reduce their wealth in the long run.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>As an aside, individuals\u2019 terrible record as market timers is currently a <strong>very bullish signal<\/strong>. They have been net sellers of domestic stock mutual funds in <strong>30 of the last 36 months, <\/strong>including each of the past\u00a018 months.\u00a0 Count on them to get back into stocks after they are up 50-100%.\u00a0 In our next installment on this topic, we\u2019ll explain why it is so difficult for individual investors to stay fully invested.<\/p>\n<p><strong>References<\/strong>:\u00a0 Ben Inker, \u201cReports of the Death of Equities Have Been Greatly Exaggerated:\u00a0 Explaining Equity Returns\u201d GMO White Paper August 2012\u00a0 (highly recommended);\u00a0 Hedrick Smith, <strong>Who Stole the American Dream?<\/strong> (2012);\u00a0 Andrea Frazzini, Owen A. Lamont,\u00a0 \u201cDumb Money: Mutual Fund Flows and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns\u201d \u00a0NBER Working Paper Series,\u00a0 July 2005.<\/p>\n<p>Copyright 2012 Thomas Doerflinger.\u00a0 All Rights Reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since 1929 U.S. stocks have provided a real return of 5.9% per year.\u00a0 So if you sell a business and have a long time horizon, it makes sense to invest in stocks.\u00a0 The cheapest and easiest way is to buy &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wallstreetandkstreet.com\/?p=242\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[54,55,8],"class_list":["post-242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-individual-investors","tag-investment-advisors","tag-stock-market"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wallstreetandkstreet.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wallstreetandkstreet.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wallstreetandkstreet.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wallstreetandkstreet.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wallstreetandkstreet.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=242"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.wallstreetandkstreet.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":247,"href":"https:\/\/www.wallstreetandkstreet.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242\/revisions\/247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wallstreetandkstreet.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=242"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wallstreetandkstreet.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=242"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wallstreetandkstreet.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=242"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}