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Category Archives: Uncategorized
Stock Avoidance Syndrome: Positive for Disciplined Individual Investors
100% in Equities? In February 2012 one of the very few Wall Street executives whose stature actually increased during the financial crisis, Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, told Bloomberg why he liked stocks: “I have been pretty consistent on this since … Continue reading
Chronic Crony Capitalist – Time for a Break-Up
Every January an elite group of investment pros meets at the Barron’s Roundtable to divulge their best stock ideas for the year ahead. In January 2007 one of America’s top fund managers – -a man widely respected for his careful … Continue reading
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Gross Domestic Puzzle . . . or . . . the Meaning of Maria’s Mobile
GDP is supposedly the value of the goods and services an economy “produces,” but there is a big conceptual caveat: GDP only covers goods and services that are bought and sold. If I help my daughter with her algebra, it … Continue reading
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Tagged GDP, inequality, Jeremy Grantham, technological innovation, wage stagnation
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Where We Get Our Money – Personal Income, 2007 vs. 2012
The personal income data in the GDP accounts provides good insights into structural changes in the U.S. economy. We compare the most recent figures (four quarters ending Q3 2012) with 2007. These are nominal data, i.e., not adjusted for inflation. … Continue reading
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Follow-up: Regulators Gone Wild – the “Cumulative Effect”
Our July 9 screed on the “other Keynesian paradigm” argued that over-regulation was killing what Keynes called “animal spirits” in the private economy. We quoted Jamie Dimon’s peroration to Ben Bernanke where Jamie ticked off a gigantic (but still incomplete) … Continue reading
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Tagged financial reform, Keynsian animal spirits, Regulation
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Over the Cliff We Go
I would hold off buying stocks here. Earnings momentum is poor, much of the world is in or near recession, stocks are not particularly cheap at 13.4x 2013E EPS of $106, and the probability we go over the fiscal cliff … Continue reading
The Other Euro Crisis – U.S. Markets Trump European “Science”
A smart sociologist once noted that every nation has a metaphorical mass movement that captures its mentalite — for Americans, it is the trek into the frontier; for the French, storming the Bastille; for Chinese Communists, the Long March; for … Continue reading
What the Big Money Owns
The folks who run America’s biggest equity mutual funds are very smart (most of the time) and very well informed. They get the “first call” from Wall Street analysts, and speak to top corporate executives regularly. For example, no corporate … Continue reading
The Culture of Capitalism and BRIC Investing
Important insights for investors are to be found in historian Joyce Appleby’s thoughtful and informative book The Relentless Revolution: A History of Capitalism. She agrees with Max Weber’s observation that “A man does not by nature wish to earn more … Continue reading
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Tagged emerging market investing, history of capitalism, Joyce Appleby
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Why You Need an Investment Advisor, Part II — The “Unthinkable” is Normal
Why is it so difficult to stay fully invested in stocks in a disciplined, rational manner, without participating in manias or selling at the bottom? Because, even during bull markets, lengthy periods of stable, normal economic growth are actually extremely … Continue reading
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Tagged financial panics, investing, stock market, stock market history
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