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Tag Archives: stock market
The China Syndrome (Part II) . . . . and the Crumbling BRICs
Two years ago I wrote a bearish post on China titled “The China Syndrome: Will GDP Growth Top 5%?”. I argued a “soft landing” was unlikely because: A) It would inevitably be tough to shift from export-and-investment driven growth to … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged China, emerging markets, energy, industrials, stock market
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U.S. Stocks: Look for Stronger Performance in Second Half of 2015
At the end of 2014 we explained why “stocks are expensive, offer mediocre risk / reward.” The weak 2.5% price rise so far this year is consistent with that call. But stocks should be stronger in the second half because … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged energy costs, median EPS growth, monetary policy, profits, stock market
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Fidelity versus the S&P 500: Round Two
A couple of days ago the WSJ reported big news in the mutual fund world—active managers have outperformed index funds thus far in 2015. Which prompted me to update a little study I did three years ago that compared the … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Fidelity, index funds, investing, manias, mid-cap stocks, mutual funds, stock market
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S&P Is Not GDP: Why Profits Fall While GDP Is Growing
The media, and many of the econo-pundits they interview, are befuddled by the current profit picture. Why, they wonder, will Q1 profits decline materially while the economy continues to grow? They get that energy earnings have collapsed, but isn’t there … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged oil prices, profit recession, profits, stock market, strong dollar
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Equity Market Outlook: Still Mediocre but Not Terrible
January’s 3% decline in the S&P 500 is consistent with my observation on December 30 that “Stocks Are Expensive, Offer Mediocre Risk / Reward.” The main issues are: Investors and strategists have become bullish and complacent; they were far more … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged dollar, oil and earnings, profits, Starbucks, stock market
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Stocks Are Expensive, Offer Mediocre Risk / Reward
Using $124 S&P 500 EPS for 2015, the forward PE of the market is 16.8x, which seems reasonable compared to the 17.1x average PE since 1989. Unfortunately this comparison is misleading for two reasons: The average since 1989 is inflated … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged equity valuation, PE ratios, S&P 500, stock market, stock market cycles
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Gross-Out: End of an Era
The news flash crossed the wires at 8.29 AM. CNBC’s Becky Quick was astounded. Bloomberg’s Tom Keene was stunned. They had to double-check that the William H. Gross joining Janus Funds was indeed THE William H. Gross, bond king, whom … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Bill Gross, bond market, John Train, media, stock market, stock market cycles
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