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Tag Archives: China
The China Syndrome (Part II) . . . . and the Crumbling BRICs
Two years ago I wrote a bearish post on China titled “The China Syndrome: Will GDP Growth Top 5%?”. I argued a “soft landing” was unlikely because: A) It would inevitably be tough to shift from export-and-investment driven growth to … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged China, emerging markets, energy, industrials, stock market
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Get Set for Fed Rate Hikessssss
Item: In a major new report, a blue-ribbon panel of economists estimates that if all the brain power expended over the past 20 years forecasting the next move by the Federal Reserve had, instead, been used for productive endeavors, U.S. … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged China, equity valuation, Federal Reserve, inflation, manias, monetary policy
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Emerging Market Masochism: an Update
As I argued on December 25, it is unwise for non-specialists to invest directly in emerging market stocks because: You can get exposure to EM economies with far less risk by buying U.S. or European multinationals. Emerging markets are very … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged China, China crackdown, China reform, emerging markets, Internet in China, Petrobras
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Cotton, Capitalism and Poverty Reduction
“Dyed in Blood: A Harvard historian shows how every stage of the industrialization of cotton rested on violence.” So reads the headline in last Sunday’s New York Times Book Review, regarding Sven Beckert’s volume, Empire of Cotton. The book is … Continue reading
Shanghai: Mr. Wang’s Bad Timing
A staple of 19th century popular literature was the lurid expose of the glamour and grit of the modern metropolis, be it London, Paris or New York. These books invariably highlighted the cruel contrast between airy boulevards lined with elegant … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged China, China corruption, inequality, nineteenth century slums, Shanghai
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Shanghai: Will Big Brother Smother the Service Economy?
We cleared immigration in Pudong International Airport and staggered into the arrivals hall, dazed and confused after 20 hours of travel. Two airport functionaries—call them Mr. Li and Mr. Wang—noticed us and politely asked if they could help. No thanks, … Continue reading
Shanghai Brands: What’s Hot and Not
We spent ten interesting and usually enjoyable days in and around Shanghai. Here’s what I learned that is of interest to investors in U.S. stocks. The Boeing 777’s that took us out and back were full of Chinese tourists; they … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged China, China malls, Chinese consumer, Haagen-Dazs, Shanghai, Starbucks
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Seven Stock Picking Themes
I have argued that investors should “create their own conglomerate” of high quality companies, mostly growth companies that pay dividends, and own them for long periods of time. I know this sounds like just another dumb investment platitude. Now we … Continue reading
Growth Stocks: What the Big Money Likes
It’s instructive to review the holdings of the smart PM’s at leading mutual fund houses—T Rowe Price, Fidelity, Gamco and Vanguard. We looked at the top 10 holdings of 18 big-cap growth-oriented funds. Some themes: A favorite holding is the … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged China, China slowdown, Citigroup, GM, growth stocks, mutual fund holdings, Visa
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Downside Risk in China
Eight months ago I warned that the China slowdown would be much worse than expected. I suggested the Wall Street parlor game of China economists daintily trimming their GDP growth estimates from 7.5% to 7.3%, etc. was fairly ridiculous because the … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged China, China Beige Book, China GDP, China real estate, China slowdown
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