-
Recent Posts
Recent Comments
Archives
- October 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
Categories
Meta
Tag Archives: profits
U.S. Stocks: Look for Stronger Performance in Second Half of 2015
At the end of 2014 we explained why “stocks are expensive, offer mediocre risk / reward.” The weak 2.5% price rise so far this year is consistent with that call. But stocks should be stronger in the second half because … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged energy costs, median EPS growth, monetary policy, profits, stock market
Leave a comment
S&P Is Not GDP: Why Profits Fall While GDP Is Growing
The media, and many of the econo-pundits they interview, are befuddled by the current profit picture. Why, they wonder, will Q1 profits decline materially while the economy continues to grow? They get that energy earnings have collapsed, but isn’t there … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged oil prices, profit recession, profits, stock market, strong dollar
Leave a comment
Equity Market Outlook: Still Mediocre but Not Terrible
January’s 3% decline in the S&P 500 is consistent with my observation on December 30 that “Stocks Are Expensive, Offer Mediocre Risk / Reward.” The main issues are: Investors and strategists have become bullish and complacent; they were far more … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged dollar, oil and earnings, profits, Starbucks, stock market
Leave a comment
Q3 Earnings: Off to a Strong Start
Based on results so far, I believe investors will conclude in mid November that third quarter profits were fairly good and better than feared. The big exception, which will surprise no one, is the energy sector, which will weigh on … Continue reading
Stocks: Where We Stand
They will rise this year, but not dramatically. Early in 2013, when the Street was cautious, we expected “valuation levitation,” which happened. Late last year we warned rising complacency would lead to higher volatility, but we stayed positive as investors … Continue reading
A Whiff of Complacency
Exactly a year ago we wrote a prescient post titled “Muted Expectations Could Set the Stage for a Positive Stock Market Surprise.” Analyzing Barrons’ survey of 12 equity strategists, published in early September 2012, we suggested (incorrectly) that their forecasts … Continue reading
Defending Profitability: This Is Not Your Parents’ S&P 500
A few weeks ago I had lunch with the strategist for a major buy-side firm who has been correctly positive on stocks. He said the biggest push-back he got on his bullish call was that profits would be weak. It’s … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged profit volatility, profits, stock market, Stock Market Valuations
Leave a comment
Q2 Earnings: Good Enough
The second quarter S&P 500 bottom-up EPS estimate is around $27.00 and should creep higher during the rest of earnings season. This is consistent with strategists’ full-year 2013 estimates of $108-110. Results are not great but good enough for stocks … Continue reading
Liquidity Over Corporate Results? Climbing the FT’s Wall of Worry
The folks at the Financial Times are trying to make sense of the U.S. stock market rally, which, it is fair to say, has surprised them. Here is their take and my brief response: The state of the world economy … Continue reading
Q1 Profits: Soft, but Good Enough for Further Valuation Levitation
The media does a terrible job of covering profits. Here are a few tips. First, forget about the percentage of companies beating consensus, which is always way above 50% because companies guide estimates to a number they can beat. (Some … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged bull market, David Stockman, profits, Stock Market Valuations, Stock Prices
Leave a comment