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Category Archives: Uncategorized
Why You Need an Investment Advisor Part I – Individuals Vastly Underperform the Market
Since 1929 U.S. stocks have provided a real return of 5.9% per year. So if you sell a business and have a long time horizon, it makes sense to invest in stocks. The cheapest and easiest way is to buy … Continue reading
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Tagged individual investors, investment advisors, stock market
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Suburban Sun Stroke
Don’t it always seem to go That you don’t know what you’ve got til it’s gone They paved paradise And put up a solar lot with apologies to Joni Mitchell In the booming 1830s Irish laborers used picks, shovels, wheel … Continue reading
No Reason for Optimism on the Fiscal Cliff
The standard view on Wall Street is that we will somehow avoid going over the “Fiscal Cliff.” That may ultimately prove to be true, but investors should proceed on the assumption we could well go over the cliff and will at … Continue reading
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It’s Time to Address Climate Change, Governor Cuomo
In an October 31 media briefing on Hurricane Sandy, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo linked the storm to climate change: “For us to say this is once-in-a-generation, that it’s not going to happen again, as elected officials that would be … Continue reading
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Tagged climate change, energy, income inequality, wage stagnation
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Under the Limit – Obamacare is Creating a Part-Time Workforce
I talk a lot about how Obama’s new regulations are hurting employment and growth. In my opinion economists tend to overlook the problem because A) it’s impossible to quantify and B) it doesn’t fit standard macro paradigms they studied in … Continue reading
“Policy Certainty” Sets Stage for Potential Romney Rally
Don’t get me wrong. Some of my best friends are economists. But their response to any and all problems is, “first, let’s create a time series, which we’ll regress against other time series until we find a relationship worth writing … Continue reading
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Q3 Earnings: Even Worse than Expected
On October 9 we issued a Complacency Alert, warning that, contra The Wall Street Journal, weak earnings did indeed matter to stock prices despite QE3 liquidity injections by the Fed. The contours of third quarter earnings are about as expected, … Continue reading
Off the Dividend Cliff?
Focus on the recession risk posed by the “Fiscal Cliff” has diverted attention from a the Dividend Cliff written into current law. Prior to 2003 dividends were taxed as ordinary income at a taxpayer’s marginal income tax rate—far above the … Continue reading
What to Expect in Q3 Profits
Uh oh. COMPLACENCY ALERT COMPLACENCY ALERT The Wall Street Journal just ran an article saying Q3 earnings will be poor but it doesn’t matter because the Fed is pumping in liquidity. Unfortunately weak earnings most definitely do matter because Fed … Continue reading
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The Pulse of Prosperity: 1964
America was at the high tide of prosperity by the mid-1960s. The gold year was 1964—three years into the expansion but before Vietnam and rising inflation cast a pall. Scanning the pages of Time Magazine, one finds signs of confidence … Continue reading