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Tag Archives: stock market
3-5% Inflation Will End this Rally . . . Eventually
Our bullish note of May 28 explained why stocks would manage to scale a new “Wall of Worry.” Since then stocks have climbed 2.4%; I think they are headed higher still. “Central bankers gone wild” are pumping liquidity into the … Continue reading
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Tagged inflation, Janet Yellen, Obamanomics, stock market, supply side
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Stocks Can Scale a New Wall of Worry
Last year, despite slowing profit growth, U.S. equities experienced a “valuation levitation” because they were too cheap compared to bonds and cash. Why own a bond yielding 3-5% when you could own a stock with a 3% dividend yield, 8% … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged bull market, market psychology, momentum stocks, stock market, wall of worry
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Do the Dow Industrials Grow Much More Slowly than Smaller Competitors? We Examine 20 Industries
For a growth stock investor like myself, a major challenge is buying companies that really will grow as fast as Wall Street expects—and sell names that run out of gas before it’s obvious to the market. A major risk is … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Dow Jones Industrials, earnings growth rates, growth stocks, mega-caps, stock market
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A Whiff of Complacency
Exactly a year ago we wrote a prescient post titled “Muted Expectations Could Set the Stage for a Positive Stock Market Surprise.” Analyzing Barrons’ survey of 12 equity strategists, published in early September 2012, we suggested (incorrectly) that their forecasts … Continue reading
Defending Profitability: This Is Not Your Parents’ S&P 500
A few weeks ago I had lunch with the strategist for a major buy-side firm who has been correctly positive on stocks. He said the biggest push-back he got on his bullish call was that profits would be weak. It’s … Continue reading
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Tagged profit volatility, profits, stock market, Stock Market Valuations
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Q2 Earnings: Good Enough
The second quarter S&P 500 bottom-up EPS estimate is around $27.00 and should creep higher during the rest of earnings season. This is consistent with strategists’ full-year 2013 estimates of $108-110. Results are not great but good enough for stocks … Continue reading
Regime Change: What the Bond / Gold Rout Means for Stocks
For well over a year I have been bullish on stocks, arguing it made little sense to own a bond yielding 2% instead of well-managed blue chip stocks yielding 2-5% with dividend growth of 5-12%. If all went well, I … Continue reading
Create Your Own Conglomerate
Short-take: Index funds are inexpensive but they are riskier than they appear, and individuals tend to dump them during panics because they don’t know what they own. Superior after-tax returns are achieved by working with an investment advisor to create … Continue reading
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Tagged after-tax returns, index funds, investment advisors, media and investing, stock market
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Liquidity Over Corporate Results? Climbing the FT’s Wall of Worry
The folks at the Financial Times are trying to make sense of the U.S. stock market rally, which, it is fair to say, has surprised them. Here is their take and my brief response: The state of the world economy … Continue reading
The PETRR Principal: How to Compare Growth Stocks and Yield Stocks
Today’s Wall Street Journal points out that despite weak EPS growth Procter & Gamble commands a higher PE ratio than Google because it has a juicy dividend. Investors reaching for yield are piling into high dividend stocks without paying much … Continue reading
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Tagged dividend stocks, dividends, growth stocks, stock market, stock valuations
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