Tag Archives: stock market

Not a Bubble; Earnings Are Rising Nicely

Stocks are behaving as I expected.  On Jan 18 I highlighted “valuation levitation,” writing “the market senses that, with rates so low and dividends set to keep growing, investors could decide that stocks deserve a materially higher valuation despite slow … Continue reading

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Valuation Levitation Continues

As we expected, stocks are rising.  Here are key themes to remember, which we have discussed before: Stocks are rising because they are attractively valued versus bonds and cash, and investors are more confident we won’t have a financial disaster.  … Continue reading

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The Wisdom of Felix

The first installment of this year’s Barron’s Roundtable was weirdly muddled, with a lengthy back-and-forth about 2013 S&P 500 EPS that never ever mentioned a specific EPS estimate.  When asked directly, “What is your S&P 500 earnings estimate for 2013?” … Continue reading

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The Election Cycle Lives

Equity investors should remember the strong tendancy for the first two years of a presidential term to be weak, the third year to be very strong, and the final or election year to be fairly strong.  Politicians postpone the “bitter … Continue reading

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Stock Avoidance Syndrome: Positive for Disciplined Individual Investors

100% in Equities? In February 2012 one of the very few Wall Street executives whose stature actually increased during the financial crisis, Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, told Bloomberg why he liked stocks: “I have been pretty consistent on this since … Continue reading

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Over the Cliff We Go

I would hold off buying stocks here.  Earnings momentum is poor, much of the world is in or near recession, stocks are not particularly cheap at 13.4x 2013E EPS of $106, and the probability we go over the fiscal cliff … Continue reading

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Why You Need an Investment Advisor, Part II — The “Unthinkable” is Normal

Why is it so difficult to stay fully invested in stocks in a disciplined, rational manner, without participating in manias or selling at the bottom?  Because, even during bull markets, lengthy periods of stable, normal economic growth are actually extremely … Continue reading

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Why You Need an Investment Advisor Part I – Individuals Vastly Underperform the Market

Since 1929 U.S. stocks have provided a real return of 5.9% per year.  So if you sell a business and have a long time horizon, it makes sense to invest in stocks.  The cheapest and easiest way is to buy … Continue reading

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Muted Expectations Could Set the Stage for a Positive Stock Market Surprise

Wall Street Strategists’ Forecasts . . . As we head into an action-packed final third of 2012, Wall Street strategists are taking a cautious view of the U.S. stock market.   But if the election in November brings more pro-business policies, … Continue reading

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Another Stock Market Buy Signal from Bill Gross?

Recently Bill Gross, the brilliant “bond king” who  founded Pimco, published a market commentary which The Wall Street Journal summarized with the headline: Bill Gross:  Stocks Are Dead and Operate Like a ‘Ponzi Scheme’ It sounds ominous, but it could … Continue reading

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